Italy's exit tax on unrealised capital gains: what the bill actually says

The Italian exit tax is a bill, not a law. Article 17 of the 2027 budget bill would tax, at the moment you cease to be Italian tax resident, the unrealised gains on certain financial assets you hold, at 26% in the general case, measured as at 31 December 2026 for a move taking effect in 2027, and payable within 180 days unless you obtain deferral. Several points that commentary treats as settled are not settled by the text, and this page says which.

Where the rule comes from, and where it stands

The rule is article 17 of the draft budget law for 2027 (the disegno di legge di bilancio). It does not create a self-standing regime. It inserts an article 307-bis into the new consolidated income tax code (testo unico delle imposte sui redditi, TUIR) enacted by D.Lgs. 19 giugno 2026, n. 117, in a new Chapter VI-bis. The rubric of the provision reads "Imposizione in uscita dei soggetti che non esercitano imprese commerciali", that is, exit taxation of persons who do not carry on a commercial business. If you know the old TUIR, note that the numbering has changed: you will not find this rule among the former articles 67, 68 or 166.

The stage reached is narrow. The Council of Ministers approved the text on 28 October 2026, and the presentation of the bill to Parliament was authorised on 30 October 2026. We have found no primary source confirming a formal filing, so we do not cite a bill number or describe the procedural stage beyond those two dates. The vote is expected before 31 December 2026, because a budget law has to be in place by then. Until it is voted, the article can be amended, and every figure below should be read as the figure of the bill on 1 November 2026, the date on which we last checked the text. If it is passed, the rules apply to losses of tax residence that take effect from 1 January 2027.

One condition is built into the rule: tax is charged only where the transfer causes Italy to lose its power to tax the assets concerned. A move that leaves Italy's taxing rights intact does not trigger it.

Who is in scope

Two cumulative conditions define the taxpayer. The first is Italian tax residence for at least 6 of the 10 tax periods preceding the one in which residence is lost. The second is a threshold: the overall normal value (valore normale complessivo) of the relevant assets and rights must reach €800,000. The threshold is all-or-nothing and it is measured on the value of the assets, not on the unrealised gain. A portfolio worth €800,000 with a modest gain is in scope in the same way as one with a large gain, and a portfolio below the threshold is outside the tax altogether.

Nationality plays no part. The test is residence, so a British, American or German national who has been resident in Italy long enough is treated like an Italian citizen. The rubric of the article, which speaks of persons who do not carry on a commercial business, also brings in non-commercial entities and simple partnerships (società semplici), which is a reminder that the text is not written only for individuals.

Two points the text available to us does not settle. First, we cannot tell you from the text whether the threshold is passed when the value is above €800,000 or when it is at least €800,000; the point only matters for a holding at the margin, but the bill does not give us the means to decide it. Second, the threshold is expressed by reference to "beni e diritti" (assets and rights), not to financial investments. It is not clear from the text whether real property counts towards the value, even though property is outside the perimeter of the tax itself. We have not filled either gap.

What is in the perimeter, and what is not

The tax reaches the miscellaneous income (redditi diversi) of a financial nature. The categories that the bill covers are set out below.

Two lines in this table deserve a comment. Real property is out of scope, and crypto-assets are in. As for life insurance policies, the bill is silent. It does not include them and it does not exclude them, and we draw no conclusion from the silence. If you hold a policy that is wrapped around a portfolio, that is a question to put to us on the actual contract, not one to be settled by assumption.

Both qualified and non-qualified participations are caught, so the exit tax is not only a matter for the holder of a minority portfolio. If part of your wealth sits in an operating company, the structure of the shareholding and the possibility of moving the company or its holding are worth reviewing alongside the personal move; our page on transferring a company or holding to Switzerland covers that side.

How the tax is computed

The base is computed asset by asset (bene per bene). For each asset, the gain is the normal market value less the recognised tax cost. The amounts are then added, and only the positive differences enter the sum. This is the important detail: the text does not allow an unrealised loss on one asset to be set against an unrealised gain on another. An implementing decree of the Ministry of Economy and Finance is foreseen and has not been published; it could provide otherwise, and nothing in the bill excludes that. As matters stand, assume that losses do not offset gains.

The valuation date is the last day of the tax period preceding the one in which the loss of Italian tax residence takes effect. For a move that takes effect in 2027, that is 31 December 2026. It is not the date of the removal, and it is not the date of your registration with AIRE. Press reports regularly say the opposite. The consequence is practical: the portfolio that is measured is the portfolio you hold at the end of the year before you leave.

An illustrative example. The figures below are invented and are not a client case. They ignore the reduced base for bonds and any deferral. Assume you are in scope, and that on 31 December 2026 you hold two assets. Asset A has an unrealised gain of €400,000. Asset B has an unrealised loss of €150,000. If losses could be offset, the net gain would be €250,000 and the tax at 26% would be €65,000. On the text as drafted, only the positive difference counts, so the base is €400,000 and the tax is €104,000. You pay tax on a gain that, taken across the whole portfolio, is smaller than the base. The loss on Asset B produces no relief under this rule. Our exit tax calculator applies the same asset-by-asset logic to your own figures.

The rate, and a point most commentary gets wrong

Much of the commentary says that article 17 sets a 26% rate. It does not. The article refers to taxation under the provisions that ordinarily apply (le disposizioni ordinariamente applicabili). The 26% is the rate of the ordinary substitute tax (imposta sostitutiva) on miscellaneous income of a financial nature, and the technical report (relazione tecnica) confirms that this is the rate applied. The distinction has a consequence: the rate is not fixed by the exit tax provision itself, but by the ordinary rules to which it points, so a change to those rules would reach the exit tax as well.

A reduced taxable base applies to a defined class of bonds. For these, the base is 48.08% of the amount, which brings the effective rate to about 12.5%, the familiar 12.5% rate on government securities. The perimeter of the reduced base is wider than "government bonds" in the narrow sense. It covers three groups: securities within article 31 of Presidential Decree 601/1973 and equivalent securities; bonds issued by states on the information-exchange white list (article 71, paragraph 4, letter c, of Legislative Decree 33/2025); and bonds issued by the local authorities of those states. A bond outside those three groups is taxed on the ordinary base.

When it is payable

The general rule is payment within 180 days. The period runs from the date on which the loss of Italian tax residence takes effect. It does not run from your application, and it does not run from your registration with AIRE. For a person leaving at the start of 2027, the deadline therefore falls in the first half of the year, and the tax on a large portfolio can be a substantial cash outflow over a short period, unless deferral is obtained.

Part of the mechanism cannot be applied from the text alone. The bill refers to an implementing decree of the Ministry of Economy and Finance, which has not been published. Until it is, the practical rules of payment, the form of the guarantee and the treatment of some of the points left open in this page are not known.

Deferral, in outline

As an alternative to immediate payment, the bill allows the tax to be deferred. To opt for deferral, you pay 50% of the tax upfront and provide a suitable guarantee (idonea garanzia). The nature, form and amount of the guarantee are not defined in the text. The deferral lasts for 5 tax periods where the destination is inside the EU and for 10 tax periods where it is outside the EU. If the assets are not disposed of within the period, the tax is cancelled. It is also cancelled on death or if Italian tax residence is resumed.

Inside deferral, and only there, a "lower of" rule (minore tra) applies: where you dispose of an asset for consideration, the tax is computed on the lower of the unrealised gain and the gain actually realised on the sale. The rule does not exist for immediate taxation, and it does not apply to disposals for no consideration. An anti-avoidance rule closes the door: a gift, or a transfer to companies or entities you control or to members of your family, removes the benefit of the "lower of" rule, and the tax is then charged on the whole unrealised gain.

The decisive question for readers who plan to move outside the EU is whether the state of destination qualifies. The bill names no state and refers to no decree that would publish a list. It states a functional test with two cumulative conditions: agreements in force that allow an adequate exchange of information, and agreements for mutual assistance in the recovery of tax claims of a scope similar to Directive 2010/24/EU. Whether a particular non-EU state is admitted is therefore an open question. In the case of Switzerland, the first condition is plausible and the second is doubtful, and the risk is real; if Switzerland were not admitted, the tax would be due in full within 180 days, with no deferral and without the "lower of" rule. We set out that analysis on its own page, deferral of the Italian exit tax when moving to Switzerland.

What the Italian state expects to collect

The technical report estimates the revenue of the measure at €3.37 million in 2027, €6.74 million for the years 2028 to 2031, and €3.37 million from 2032, the last figure being net of refunds of advance payments that turn out not to be due. These are a theoretical estimate, built on assumptions about behaviour, and not a forecast of what will be collected.

The report gives no number of taxpayers affected, and we give none. A larger figure of €13.47 million appears in some commentary, but it is an intermediate figure in the technical report's own calculation, a theoretical potential and not an expected receipt, and it should not be read as a revenue forecast.

The questions that have no answer yet

The honest summary of the text is that it settles the architecture of the tax and leaves a series of points open. These are the ones that matter for a decision to leave:

• The list of non-EU states admitted to deferral does not exist; the admission of any given state depends on a two-limb functional test, and for Switzerland the second limb is in doubt.
• The treatment of Italy's special regimes, including the expenditure-based and other regimes for new residents, is not addressed by the text, and we assert nothing either way.
• Whether life insurance policies are in the perimeter is not stated.
• Whether real property counts towards the €800,000 threshold is not clear, and neither is whether the threshold is passed above or at that figure.
• The content of the implementing decree is unknown, including its treatment of the offsetting of losses and the nature of the guarantee.
• The text itself may change before it is voted.

Ark Fiduciaire reviews these points on your actual documents: the deeds and statements of your holdings, the structure through which you hold them, and your residence history. Where the file requires it, we work with the tax lawyers of PBM Avocats. The Italian side of the exit tax, its filing and its payment, is settled with an Italian adviser, and we work alongside yours. If you want to see where you stand before the vote, ask us for a review of your file. For the Swiss side of a move, our page on lump-sum taxation in Switzerland explains the regime that many wealthy arrivals consider.